The Complete Guide to Store-Based Forecasting for Retail Expansion

Introduction: When Retail Is Your Growth Engine

For many food, beverage, and consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands, the real growth driver isn’t ad spend or website traffic—it’s distribution. Securing a spot on shelves at Whole Foods, Target, Walmart, or regional grocery chains can transform your revenue trajectory overnight.

That’s where store-based forecasting comes in. This method projects revenue by focusing on two levers you can directly track:

• Number of stores carrying your product (store count)
• Sales velocity per store (units sold per store per period × unit price)

If retail distribution is central to your business, this method is one of the most straightforward and actionable ways to build a revenue forecast.

👉 This blog is part of our forecasting series, which also includes deep dives into Website-Based Forecasting, Customer-Based Forecasting, Market Share-Based Forecasting, and Cohort-Based Forecasting. For a complete overview of all methods, check out our parent guide: The Essential Guide to Revenue Forecasting for Your Startup Food or CPG Business.

What Is Store-Based Forecasting?

The formula is simple:

Revenue = Store Count × Sales per Store × Price per Unit

• Store Count: How many retail doors you’re in.
• Sales per Store (Velocity): Average number of units sold per store per period.
• Price per Unit: Wholesale or retail price, depending on how you model revenue.

Sample Computation

Imagine a brand selling into 1,000 retail stores.

• Store Count: 1,000
• Sales Velocity: 30 units per store, per month
• Price per Unit: $10

Revenue = 1,000 × 30 × $10 = $300,000 per month

This makes it easy to see the impact of distribution expansion. For example:

• Adding 200 more stores at the same velocity lifts revenue to $360,000/month.
• Increasing velocity to 40 units per store raises revenue to $400,000/month—without adding a single new door.

When Store-Based Forecasting Works Best

This method is a strong fit if:

• Retail distribution is your primary sales channel.
• Sales volume is closely correlated to store count.
• You’re executing a growth strategy that depends on increasing distribution.

It’s less useful if your business is primarily DTC or wholesale, but for retail-driven brands, it’s often the most strategic forecasting tool.

Practical Considerations

While the math is simple, the challenge is data access:

• Store-level velocity data can be hard (and expensive) to get.
• Retailers and distributors may only provide high-level or lagged reporting.
• You need to build the model using data that you can reconcile monthly, allowing you to compare forecasts with actuals and adjust assumptions accordingly.

A common approach is to break out forecasts by retailer and region. This allows you to apply different store counts, velocities, and prices for each, then roll them up into a total revenue forecast.

Why Founders Like This Method

• Clear linkage to distribution strategy: Every new store opened = incremental revenue.
• Easy to scenario plan: Model what happens if you add 500 Target doors or lift velocity in existing accounts.
• Investor-friendly: Shows how expansion tangibly drives top-line growth.

Limitations

• Requires accurate velocity data, which can be costly or incomplete.
• Doesn’t capture DTC or marketplace sales, so it’s often used alongside other models.
• Assumes stable velocity, though in reality, sales per store vary by region, retailer, and promotion.

Conclusion

Store-based forecasting is one of the best tools for retail-focused brands. By tying revenue directly to store count and velocity, it gives founders and investors a clear picture of how distribution drives growth.

If getting on more shelves is your growth lever, this is the forecasting method to rely on.

👉 This blog is part of our forecasting series, which also covers Website-Based Forecasting, Customer-Based Forecasting, Market Share-Based Forecasting, and Cohort-Based Forecasting methods. For the complete overview, visit our parent guide: The Essential Guide to Revenue Forecasting for Your Startup Food or CPG Business.